The Blockchain Capital’s Spencer Bogart believes in the long-term case for bitcoin, but he’s less convinced on altcoins. Despite the fact that bitcoin has dropped below the $8,000 and has suffered its worst three-week performance since Q3 2017, now’s not the time to retreat. Bogart, a former equity analyst said investors are getting it wrong and instead of unloading BTC should be kicking overbought altcoins to the curb.
“If the story erodes and it’s not there, then I’m not going to be bullish on bitcoin. But the long-term thesis is very much intact,” Bogart said, adding that while bitcoin could face some headwinds in the short-term, his minimum horizon for bitcoin trading higher is one year.
Bogart admits that he can’t predict how the bitcoin price is going to unfold in the short-term, and he’s in good company, as bitcoin bulls had been predicting a rally by now. But looking out into the next year or two, the use cases for bitcoin become clearer. For instance, he points to a one-two punch comprised of the institutionalization of bitcoin coupled with currency crises that are unfolding in countries like Venezuela as the catalysts for bitcoin’s longevity.
Anecdotal signs of bitcoin’s future include the robust turnout during blockchain week in mid-May as well as the major banks that are looking to implement blockchain into their operations in some way including supporting trading in the leading digital currency for clients.
While Bogart is bullish on bitcoin, he doesn’t place a rating any higher than hold on the leading altcoins and in fact believes that certain coins are a “sell”. He rates Ethereum a “hold” and points to potential headwinds surrounding the ICO coins that are linked to the network. “Those tokens are overvalued,” he said, noting how ether is the fuel to power the Ethereum network.
In addition to ETH, Bogart also attaches a “hold” rating on Ripple, Roger Ver’s favorite coin Bitcoin Cash and EOS. He believes that Cardano, TRON, IOTA and NEO are overbought and therefore has a “sell” rating on those altcoins. TRON is nearing its migration away from the Ethereum blockchain and onto its own MainNet.
If there’s one thing that bitcoin has proven in its short history is that it’s a volatile asset. Market participants who have been around since the early days can tell you the recent pricing pressure is nothing new. But what sets this bear market apart, as CNBC panelists pointed out, is the $314 billion market cap for the broader cryptocurrency market. A key difference in this market downturn, Bogart noted, is that market participants no longer have to be reassured that bitcoin isn’t going anywhere.